French Bakery at a Crossroads: Fewer Shops, More Food Service

French Bakery at a Crossroads: Fewer Shops, More Food Service

Food Service Vision, a Lyon-based company specializing in foodservice market analysis, has recently published its latest study on the state of the bakery and pastry sector in France in 2025.

1. 1. A sector shrinking in numbers but slightly growingUn secteur en contraction numérique mais en légère croissance
   • • Decline in points of sale:
     For the second consecutive year, the number of bakeries has decreased, reaching 32,597.
   • • Slower growth:
     Total revenue has reached €16.2 billion, but its growth (+2%) is significantly lower than in previous years (for example +20% in 2021).
   • • Territorial coverage:
     Bakeries remain the leading local retail business in France, with one shop for every 2,000 inhabitants.

2. 2. The decisive rise of bakery chains

The market is increasingly characterized by a duality between independent bakeries and chain networks:

• • Growth of chains:
  They represent only 10.3% of points of sale (3,350 shops) but capture an increasing market share with €3.8 billion in revenue (+8%).
• • Higher performance:
  A chain bakery generates on average €1.14 million, significantly more than an average independent bakery, driving the overall growth of the sector.

3. 3. Changing consumer habits

Bread is no longer the sole driver of purchases:

• • Declining importance of bread:
  It now represents only 35% of purchase occasions.
• • Increasing competition:
  The sector faces strong competition from large retail chains (supermarkets) and particularly from the breakfast segment, which still accounts for 76% of visits.

4. 4. Snacking as a growth driver

To compensate for declining traffic, bakeries are transforming into foodservice businesses:

• • Expansion of the product range:
  Strong development of savory products, vegetarian options, and savory viennoiseries.
• • Hot food service:
  More take-away meals (burgers, hot dogs) as well as on-site consumption with more elaborate dishes such as risottos or daily specials.

Distribution of purchase occasions by product category

• The table below illustrates how the bakery business model has diversified, with bread no longer being the only pillar of revenue

 

Drinks
13 %

Product category	Share of purchase occasions (%)
Bread (traditional and specialty)	35 %
Viennoiseries	20 %
Snacking (savory items, sandwiches, hot meals)	16 %
Pastries	13 %

 

Analysis of these figures

• • The relative decline of bread:
  Although it remains the leading product, bread now represents only about one third of purchase occasions. This forces bakeries to become multi-consumption spaces.
• • The importance of the “breakfast” flow:
  Since this moment of the day represents 76% of purchase occasions, the combination of viennoiseries and beverages (33% in total) has become almost as essential as baguette sales.
• • The leverage of snacking:
  With 16%, snacking is the main growth driver, particularly through the introduction of more elaborate hot dishes (risottos, shepherd’s pie, etc.) to compete with traditional fast-food outlets.